What’s More Likely: Rich Talks Bills, Broncos, 49ers, Saints, Falcons & More

Football is back, which means What's More Likely is back, and Chris Brockman came loaded for a Friday.

He opened with the 49ers pass catchers. George Kittle or Deebo Samuel to top 1,000 yards this season? Rich went Kittle without much hesitation, noting that Deebo's last thousand-yard season was a couple of years ago. He also volunteered something the rest of the 49ers world would like in writing.

"Guess who's playing week one? I'll go right now."

That was the theme of the round. Kittle, Mahomes, Daniel Jones, all of them, back for the opener.

Next came a pair of NFC South receivers who both got paid: Chris Olave and Drake London. The room agreed on the flaw, which is that some of their best ability is not their availability. Olave went first, and the reasoning was clean. We know who Olave's quarterback is going to be. Nobody knows who is throwing in Atlanta. Matt Ryan was throwing balls in camp on Thursday, and a guy named Jack Strand was taking first team reps.

That name detonated the segment. Jack Strand sounds like a CBS cop show. Jack Strand lives on the beach. Jack Strand is in San Diego. Somebody at the desk eventually claimed Jack Strand lives in Hermosa and that they have had beers together, which nobody believed for a second.

London went second, with the picker admitting the actual reason out loud. He cannot take an Ohio State guy. He plays fantasy to enjoy.

The Cowboys question was the least controversial of the day: top three in total offense or top 10 in total defense? Everybody went offense, and quickly. The stat that got dropped at the desk was that no team has ever gone dead last in points allowed one season and won the Super Bowl the next, so top 10 on defense would already be a massive upgrade. Get to 12th or 13th and keep that offense, and the whole season looks different.

Then Brockman got cruel. Thirty-plus year old running back with the better season this year: Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?

"Why would you make me do this?" Rich asked. Brockman's defense was that it's the end of July and there is nothing else to do, which is unimpeachable.

The numbers got walked through in real time. Henry went for 1,600 yards last year and 16 touchdowns and finished second in the league in rushing. McCaffrey put up 1,200 from scrimmage with roughly 900 receiving. Rich made the case that a big week 18 Saturday night game against Seattle could have put McCaffrey in MVP position instead of just Comeback Player of the Year. He landed on McCaffrey.

On quarterbacks wanting extensions, Rich took Baker Mayfield for more yards and touchdowns than C.J. Stroud. The follow-up question, on whose deal carries the higher average annual value, went the other way. The read at the desk was Stroud, north of $40 million, with a contract done before week one. The Mayfield context came from Mayfield himself: he said he got a two-year, $50 million per year offer and was disappointed in the years.

Sleeper duty went to the two teams with the worst playoff odds, Cardinals or Dolphins. Rich took Arizona and said he needs to see Miami's weapons before he buys in.

The AFC Super Bowl-or-bust question, Broncos or Bills, produced the best exchange of the segment. Rich picked Buffalo, Brockman pushed back, and Rich responded with a flat "I'm sorry you don't like my answer. I didn't stutter." Brockman's contribution was to note that one of those teams won its division last year.

And the closer, appropriately for a Friday before SummerSlam: friend of the show more likely to win a belt, Cody Rhodes or Seth Rollins? Cody faces Punk on Saturday, Seth faces Roman on Sunday, and Rollins was booked for hour three. Rich picked Rollins. TJ tried to sit on the fence, at which point Rich informed him he would be pushed off it next hour.