NFL Insider Tom Pelissero Breaks Down Raiders’ Realistic Expectations in 2026

The Raiders and Titans are sitting on nearly identical over/unders, Las Vegas at five and a half wins and Tennessee at six and a half, and Tom Pelissero used the pairing to make a point about why first-year teams are so easy to misjudge.

Both franchises spent the offseason tearing it down and building it back. Pelissero noted the Raiders rebuilt their defense almost entirely through free agency, drafted Fernando Mendoza, and added Kirk Cousins, who based on every public comment appears to be the starter out of the gate as part of the deal that brought him there. Tennessee was just as aggressive, signing seemingly every available corner, adding John Franklin-Myers on a big-money deal, retaining Calvin Ridley, and using the fourth overall pick on Carnell Tate. With Cam Ward entering year two, Pelissero figured an optimistic Titans fan is looking at seven or eight wins, maybe nine in the dream scenario.

What makes these teams genuinely hard to read, Pelissero argued, is the sheer scale of the turnover. Tennessee and Las Vegas may be the two leaders in the league for changes, not just at coordinator but at head coach, general manager and front office across the board. Tennessee paired established hands in Robert Saleh, a former head coach whose defenses are well known, and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, while the Raiders leaned on their own experienced staff. The real question, he said, is what ownership in each city considers progress. Is getting back to eight or nine wins and playing meaningful December football a success, or is it about the process underneath the record?

Then came the warning that gave the segment its spine. The most dangerous thing that can happen to a new regime, Pelissero said, is overachieving in year one. He described the placebo effect that comes with change, the juice of the old guy being gone and the new guy arriving, which can push a team to win more close games than it should. The trap springs the following season. "You could do a better coaching job, you could improve the roster," he said, "but based upon the regression to the mean, you still might not achieve the same results."

That, he explained, is when everyone starts asking what went wrong, when the honest answer is that last year was the overachievement and this year is who the team actually is. Pelissero sees it cutting both ways for the Raiders and Titans. He could see both clubs jumping out of the gate, pointing to a good coach in Robert Saleh on one side and a proven offensive mind in Clint Kubiak on the other. He could just as easily see early growing pains.

The real question, Pelissero concluded, is what a fan should even root for: the slow, sustainable build, or the immediate playoff push that leaves a young team with nowhere to climb but everywhere to fall.