ESPN’s Alex Smith: These Five Teams Could Win the AFC

Before Alex Smith could talk about the NFL, he had a rivalry to explain. Rich opened by noting that Utah is "crushing it," and Smith, a Utah man, immediately turned to the next day's game against BYU.

"This is the Holy War, Rich," Smith said. "It's the church versus the state. Okay? This is a big deal." He called it the biggest one ever, with both teams in the top 10, and said he doesn't remember the rivalry ever featuring two top-10 teams. "We don't like each other very much, Rich," he added. Rich had seen the current Utah coach's old comments about BYU from his playing days and called them not safe for work.

Smith loves it. "Rivalry games are the greatest thing in sports. There's nothing better," he said. When Urban coached Smith at Utah, BYU became "the team down south," borrowed from the Ohio State and Michigan rivalry. Families in the state are divided, and you have to pick a side. Both programs, once in the WAC and Mountain West, are now in the Big 12 and still climbing. Smith planned to catch the second half after landing in New York for Sunday NFL Countdown.

Then it was on to the Vikings, whose offense Smith has watched struggle for two months. He would not pin it on any one thing. The offensive line hasn't played great, there has been no consistent run game, Kyler got hurt in Week 1 and missed games, and third downs have suffered because of poor first and second downs. There are scheme questions too. "I kind of think there's enough to spread around," Smith said. "I don't think we can pin this on the quarterback."

With Minnesota's defense, the offense "only kind of just need[s] to be okay," Smith said. "This doesn't have to be an offense that puts up 30 a game." He wants Kevin O'Connell to loosen the structure and let Kyler run, spread it out and "let him be dynamic."

Rich pointed out that all weekend, including on Monday Night Countdown, the conversation will be: what if Carson Wentz plays well against the Bills? Smith agreed that is the reality in "a monster matchup." If Wentz plays well, it raises the question of a trade deadline move, though Smith isn't sure Wentz is "the guy that's going to take you to the promised land." Still, he said, "to pin this all on Kyler at this point is kind of crazy when you watch the film."

Rich's next question came with a pretext: it is a week-to-week league. Are the Bears the best team in football now? "They are absolutely contenders," Smith said. Going into Seattle and putting up 34 points, a week after the Chiefs "got absolutely punched in the face" there, impressed him. Aside from one trick play, he said, it was "basic methodical football," a great run game with great play action.

Smith said Caleb Williams is "knocking on the door of kind of elite." If he keeps playing this way, Smith said, he "absolutely deserves to be in the conversation with Patrick and Josh and Lamar and Joe." Add the move to shore up the defense, and "I think that the Bears compete with anybody."

Rich added that the Simmons addition also electrified the locker room, with management confirming that now is the time. Next up is Tampa Bay on Sunday night, a defense that pressures far more than Seattle. Smith called the Bucs "incredibly physical," with Vita Vea setting the tone in the middle. "This isn't a defensive front that's going to get pushed around," he said. But the Bears have answers. "It seems like every week it's someone else that leads them in receiving," Smith said. He expects Tampa to be determined to stop the run, because so much of Ben Johnson's offense comes off it, from play action to bootlegs to movement.

The AFC got its own deep dive. Rich wondered whether the current top seven seeds will simply be the playoff field, with the Browns starting Shedeur, the 4-5 Ravens on their third or fourth quarterback and the Raiders at 4-4. Smith said the AFC North is wide open. The Steelers have put themselves in a good spot, and the Ravens are "a little bit in free fall" at quarterback. He likes the Browns as "an ascending team" with the youngest roster in football and a ton of talent, and he loves what coach Monken has done. The Texans would need a big run, but Smith said they have the talent and did it last year.

He was skeptical of Cincinnati. Joe Burrow "is playing as good as anybody," with six touchdowns last week, but scoring 40 at home against the Titans in an overtime game is not sustainable. "That defense has got to improve if this team has a chance to make any noise in the postseason or to even win that division," Smith said.

For Smith, the bigger question is who can actually win the Lamar Hunt Trophy, and he said you can count those teams on one hand. Rich told him to count them. First came the Jaguars, who played the night before. "Trevor Lawrence is playing unbelievable," Smith said, praising Jacksonville's defense and firepower. Then the Chiefs and the Broncos, the Bills and the Patriots. Those five, he said, have the capability to make a deep playoff run, and home field and the bye will be huge. With Lamar Jackson out, Smith doesn't see an AFC North team built for a deep run.

Rich noticed the Steelers were missing. Smith said he loves what Pittsburgh is doing, calling it one of the most physical teams in football on both sides of the ball, with eight sacks last week while holding the opponent to 30 rushing yards. Aaron Rodgers is playing really well. But the receivers are the problem. "Darnell Washington can't be your leading receiver every week. Pat Freiermuth can't be your leading receiver, right?" Smith said. Someone at receiver has to step up, and through the first half of the season, nobody has.

To finish, Rich showed Smith the same board he showed Kurt Warner: Burrow's six-touchdown stat line in a loss next to Baker winning without a completion. Smith had watched that rain-soaked Bucs and Falcons game. "If you play linebacker in a game like that, you're reduced to like a 7-year-old kid," he said. "If you're a quarterback, there is nothing more miserable than a game like that." Just getting the snap and handing it off is stressful. Rich wondered if Baker begged his coordinator for one bubble screen, one shovel pass, just one completion.