ESPN’s Alex Smith Talks Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Patriots & More with Rich

Alex Smith and Rich go back 21 years, to their first conversation on TV. "Over half a lifetime ago for me," Smith said. Rich did the math another way: the friendship is now old enough to drink.

The most recent time they saw each other was at a wedding, and Rich joked about whether Smith had signed an NDA with his own brain. The groom was Travis Kelce, Smith's old teammate, and Smith called the whole thing surreal. "Insane people watching," he said, but mostly he was struck by seeing Kelce up there. Kansas City drafted Kelce in Smith's first year with the Chiefs, and they spent five years together. "This was young pup Trav."

Rich remembered being on set in Minneapolis at the Super Bowl when Smith was traded, and how broken up Kelce was about it. Smith now calls Kelce "arguably the greatest receiving tight end of all time," and doesn't think there's much of an argument.

He also remembered what the young version looked like. On the first touchdown pass Smith ever threw him, Kelce caught a little shallow cross, ran it in, and broke into a choreographed dance. Then there was the route running. "This guy just never ran the route on the paper, Rich," Smith said. At first that threw him. Then he realized it was a superpower. It didn't matter if a corner, a safety or a linebacker lined up across from him. Smith also credited Kelce's background as a high school quarterback who was recruited to play the position in college. When defenses pressured, he sped up his routes naturally. "He always knew when to look."

Smith was sympathetic, and direct, about Drake Maye's three-interception loss in Seattle. "I'm sure that was not a great night's sleep," he said. "You're just replaying those three plays over and over and over in your head."

He walked through each one. The first was a shot high in the red zone into double coverage. The second was a ball forced down the middle on third and long. The third came with overtime in hand, when Maye threw one up. "They're all kind of unexplainable," Smith said.

The frustrating part is what the game was there for. Sam Darnold went out on the fifth play, New England's defense was playing outstanding, and a win on the road against that defense, in that noise, would have been huge. "This all of a sudden does turn into, I hate this term, but you got to manage this game," Smith said. "You were in the driver's seat and again, I think got a little impatient."

He still sees a quarterback with every tool, from size and arm strength to processing, and one who is younger than some of this year's rookie quarterbacks. Rich noted Maye just turned 24 on August 30. Smith's broader prediction is that the Patriots will be a better football team than a year ago, in year two with Josh McDaniels, but won't have as good a record. "Drake Maye will learn from this," he said. "This is part of playing quarterback."

Does that mean Buffalo wins the AFC East? Smith "certainly wouldn't be surprised." He called the Bills one of the best teams in football, not just in the division, with Josh Allen "playing unbelievable" and a streak of playoff wins he put at six or seven straight years, even without a Super Bowl trip.

He grouped Buffalo with Baltimore. Both have MVP-caliber quarterbacks in their prime, and both decided to change head coaches despite a ton of regular season success. He also noted the Bills open at Houston. If there were two defenses he would not want to start a season against, it would be at Seattle or at Houston.

Then the Monday night opener. Rich laid out the problem for Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes coming off a knee injury, potentially without his left tackle, against a Broncos defense that sacked quarterbacks 68 times last year. Smith called Denver "awesome," deep on both sides, and a team that led the league in quarterback hits, pressures and sacks.

The question everyone will be watching, Smith said, is Mahomes' mobility. He does an unbelievable job getting the ball out on time, but he also has "the signature Patrick plays when he runs around and turns into a superhero." Is that still there already? Smith said Mahomes seems ahead of schedule in his rehab, and wondered whether last season was an aberration, "a perfect storm of adversity" that culminated in the injury. Smith will be at the game.

As for what the Chiefs offense looks like in 2026, he wants a run game first. Kansas City has missed a consistent one for a couple of years, and it made the offense one-dimensional. He expects Kenneth Walker to help. He also sees Rashee Rice as "the straw that stirs this drink," a thick receiver who can do a lot of the things Kelce has traditionally done over the middle. Andy Reid always wants a speed threat, and Xavier Worthy is "the fastest guy in the NFL." The missing explosive plays, Smith said, often come off play action tied to the run game. And Kelce still plays at a very high level, especially in the red zone. By all reports Smith has heard, camp was amazing.

Rich asked the sports talk radio question. Of the three AFC teams with new head coaches, the Bills with Joe Brady, the Steelers with Mike McCarthy and the Ravens after John Harbaugh, which goes the furthest?

"I like the Ravens," Smith said. "I like the Ravens a lot."

His reasoning started with history. "The last two times, Rich, that we had a new offensive coordinator in Baltimore, they had an MVP there," he said. Lamar Jackson won MVP both times. Smith dismissed the speculation about whether Jackson can work under center more often. "I think that's crazy. This is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL." His stats under center, Smith said, have been phenomenal.

He also expects the defense to rebound. It has underachieved the last two years despite first-round picks and playmakers all over the place. Pair that with Jackson in his prime, and Smith looks for Baltimore to be "really, really dangerous."

As for a Super Bowl pick, Smith wouldn't give one yet. "Luckily I got a couple days to still stew on this. So tune in." He did say he loves the Bills and that the AFC is stacked. In the NFC North, he thinks all four teams are so evenly matched that anyone picking the order could be dead wrong. He is intrigued by Kyler Murray playing for Kevin O'Connell, whom he called one of the best quarterback coaches in football, with Brian Flores' defense behind him.

Smith has played in London twice and in Mexico City, and woke up to play plenty of games in college, but never anything like a morning kickoff after flying to Australia. Rich pointed out both teams were waking up to news that Darnold could be out a significant amount of time, which raised the stakes of an early division game.

International games are fine by him, but this one struck him. "The fact that this is a division game, that's this amazing rivalry between Northern California and Southern California," he said. "This is Giants-Dodgers, this is Lakers-Warriors." Playing it in Australia, he said, is "pretty weird, frankly."

He also thinks the magnitude is real. Seattle, the Rams and the 49ers may have been the three best teams in football a year ago, all in one division, beating up on each other. "There are all-pros all over the place, Rich," he said, "and they're going to be out there slugging it out in Melbourne."

Rich saved one more second on the clock for his own school. Kyle Whittingham was Smith's coach at Utah, and Rich wanted to know how Whittingham is handling the Hail Mary escape and a 19-year-old quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who comes with a massive price tag and appears to be struggling pre-snap and post-snap.

Smith has known Whittingham a long time and read his postgame and press conference the same way. "Things are not okay in that locker room and in that facility," he said. "This stuff's not going to get swept under the rug here, just because they lucked out with a Hail Mary win."

The defense looked good, Smith said, but outside of the first drive, the offense looked pretty inept. And he took Whittingham's comments about Underwood's job at face value. "No one's job is written in ink here," Smith said. It is the University of Michigan, and "you better believe they got a stable of talented quarterbacks that can step in there and play." Nobody's job is safe, Smith added, "including his." Sometimes a head coach's job is to say the uncomfortable thing, and Smith felt Whittingham did it.

What does Whittingham do behind closed doors? Smith described the recipe he has always used. An elite defense, a great running game and an offense that is good situationally. "You can win a lot of football games that way." Now the pressure turns up on the offense, and Smith was clear the problem was not just the quarterback. The run game didn't get much going either.

Rich asked it directly. Would Whittingham sit a kid with a massive NIL price tag?

"Yes. Yeah. Absolutely. Without a doubt."

For the record, Smith's own college NIL deal was a free cheeseburger. "And I was scared to death when I took it."