What’s More Likely: Rich Talks Chiefs, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Ravens, Joe Burrow & More

Chris built an entire What's More Likely out of one night of preseason football, and Rich knee-jerked his way through it happily until the Joe Burrow question showed up.

The opener was Kirk Cousins or Jacoby Brissett for more starts this season, and Rich went Brissett. Gardner Minshew looked like real football on Thursday night too, which raises a fair question about whether Arizona is simply going to hand the job to Carson Beck. Rich is not sure they are.

Next came the running back knee-jerk. Jeremiyah Love for 1,500 total yards or Ashton Jeanty for 1,500 rushing yards? Rich took Love. Fifteen hundred on the ground is an enormous number, and the counterpoint that Jeanty is the only back Las Vegas has does not hold, not with the kid out of Arkansas ripping off a very nice run of his own. Love reaching 1,000 rushing and half that receiving is far more reachable, and Baldi had already floated 60 catches and 250 carries for him.

Then Chris asked whether the Bengals offensive line getting Burrow killed was more likely than the Dolphins sniffing it all year, and Rich wanted no part of the framing. He watched Burrow get sacked two plays after connecting with Ja'Marr Chase, then take a blindside shot from a rookie who looked like he wanted to hang Burrow's pelt on the wall and go show Dan Campbell what he did. All of it unnecessary in a Week 1 preseason game.

"I don't want to put that into the ether," Rich said, taking the Dolphins instead, even though he does not actually believe Miami sniffs it all season and even though he likes Jeff Hafley a lot.

Fantasy came next, and Rich did not hesitate on Garrett Wilson versus Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka, all day long. Wilson is a top-10 player in every ranking and insanely talented, but Rich wants to know when Wilson is going to get the same good quarterback two years running, someone healthy, someone he vibes with. Until Geno Smith shows him something, he will take the guy catching passes from Baker Mayfield, the guy who was the offensive rookie of the year through the first 10 weeks of last season. Put another way: Rich believes in Mayfield and Chris Godwin more than he believes in Smith and Adonai Mitchell.

Chargers or Texans to win multiple playoff games? Rich went Houston, and not because he is arguing skill sets. Houston has been there with its quarterback three years in a row and has taken three cracks at winning two games in a postseason. The Chargers have not had those chances.

The one Rich barked at was Vikings or Giants as a sleeper division winner. "Vikings. I didn't stutter." Minnesota had a top-five defense last year, has three wide receivers who have all been very good and one who might be the best in the league. Minnesota also won this division last year and nearly won the conference two years ago before Sam Darnold got his behind kicked in the season finale. Asking Rich to bet instead on the Giants putting it together in John Harbaugh's first year, in a division with the Bears, Lions and Packers as the alternative, was not going to work. He also likes Kyler Murray to have a better season than Jackson Dart, arguing people sleep on a former rookie of the year.

Best quarterback in the league by season's end, Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes? Rich took Stafford, which drew immediate cries of Mahomes slander. His reasoning is about the team. The Rams are on his power rankings list and the Chiefs have yet to crack his top 10, so if the question is who is more likely to be holding the trophy, it is Los Angeles. Mahomes remains on a Mount Rushmore path, and a Chiefs-Rams Super Bowl would break viewing records.

Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing? Rich does not think it is either one, and then took the younger one anyway.