What’s More Likely: Rich Talks Broncos, Chiefs, Bears, Cowboys, World Cup, NBA, NHL & More

Rich's strongest verdict on Friday's What's More Likely: forget last year's stumble, Patrick Mahomes is more likely than Sean Payton to reach the next Super Bowl for the AFC West, and Rich is not backing off the Chiefs even after producer Chris accused him of being a "Chiefs honk" for overreacting to one down year. His logic ran through Tom Brady's Patriots, who answered a quarterback's knee injury by winning 11 games behind Matt Cassel. Last season, in Rich's framing, was simply Kansas City's off year.

From there the calls came fast. Asked which much-maligned quarterback is more likely to reach a Super Bowl for the first time, Rich took Justin Herbert over Dak Prescott without hesitation, citing that he had already slotted the Chargers second in his way-too-early power rankings. The bit wrote itself once Chris pulled a Dak Prescott quote about how it only matters if you win the last game of the season, which set up the question of who everyone loves but has not done anything yet. Rich landed on Herbert, then joked that any time Chris fails to troll Herbert, a Charger gets its wings.

Loyalty drove the next one. Pressed on which NFC title contender should be most insulted by not being favored in their division, Rich went with his defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks at 13-4, though he conceded the Bears landing third behind the Lions and Packers is "particularly disrespectful," especially after Micah Parsons called Chicago's quarterback the best player in football. Rich noted Parsons will not be playing for two months.

On the trade front, Rich called one more big move before Week 1 more likely than a quiet summer, floating Max Crosby or George Pickens but warning it could be a quarterback who loses a competition and makes a stink, the way Sam Bradford got dealt before a season. Hockey supplied the running gag, with John Tortorella guaranteeing a Game 7 in Carolina by promising to leave his clothes in the hotel. Rich agreed a Stanley Cup Game 7 is more likely than an NBA Finals Game 6, siding with Tortorella and riffing on Larry David sweating out a hypothetical Game 6. He also took USA goals against Paraguay over lead changes in Hurricanes-Knights Game 6, predicting a 2-0 American win.

Baseball brought the sharpest debate. Rich picked Freddie Freeman, fresh off 2,500 hits, to reach 3,000 before Giancarlo Stanton hits his 500th home run, reasoning that Stanton, who needs only 44 homers, cannot stay on the field, while Freeman is healthy and playing. That spiraled into a Mets-bashing exchange over Juan Soto, Manny Machado and a last-place New York club looking up at the Phillies. Rich closed with 1996 nostalgia, conceding that while Swingers was a word-of-mouth hit, anyone heading to the theater that Friday night was really choosing Mission: Impossible or The Rock.