What’s More Likely: Rich Talks Baker, Burrow, Kyler, Bills, Texans, Bears and MUCH More

The first in-season edition of What's More Likely arrived with week one, and Chris had the floor.

His first question went straight at the two biggest letdowns of the opening game day. Which Super Bowl contender should be more worried after its opening loss, the Rams or the Patriots?

Rich didn't hesitate. "Patriots." Aaron Donald is coming back for the Rams. The Patriots, meanwhile, just put A.J. Brown on injured reserve for four weeks.

Chris pointed out, not for the first time, that New England went to the Super Bowl without Brown last year. The retort from the table: the Patriots had Kayshon Boutte then, and Boutte isn't walking through that door.

His case against the Patriots was about the quarterback. One team flew all the way to Australia on what appears to be a failed experiment, and its MVP quarterback didn't have a good game. The other quarterback, who barely lost the MVP, threw three interceptions. Rich said it showed again that there is, as Steve Young pointed out, a blank space in his game he is trying to fill, and one of the ways to help fill it is now out a month with a high ankle sprain.

Next, Chris revisited last year's week one stunner, when the Raiders went to New England and won. What's more likely to be this year's week one shocker, Browns at Jacksonville or Cardinals at Chargers?

Rich wanted a third option. He finds it hard to believe Deshaun Watson suddenly finds the 2019 fountain, even with the reminder that people said the same thing about Geno Smith. If he had to choose, he'd take Cardinals and Chargers, because "we have no earthly idea what the Cardinals are going to be like." His alternative was New Orleans at Detroit, which jumped off the screen at him. A Washington win in Philadelphia also got floated as the kind of result that would be a real shocker.

The rushing question was Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor to threaten 150 yards when the Ravens visit the Colts. Rich went with Henry, citing 16 career games in Indianapolis, essentially a full season of work, with close to 1,400 career yards there. He also expects Baltimore's defense to be vastly improved.

Chris asked who is more likely to be crowned the AFC front-runner on Monday morning, the Bills or the Texans. Rich first picked the Texans, then reconsidered how the national conversation works. The Bills will always be talked about as a front-runner. Even if Houston wins, people will still be talking about Buffalo. And Rich added a dry reminder that no matter how good the Texans are, they always seem to end up as the first wild card game of the weekend.

In Carolina, a possible shootout produced a second-year receiver question: Luther Burden or Tetairoa McMillan to have more yards and touchdowns. Rich went McMillan, while acknowledging Burden came on strong at the end of last season.

Then Chris turned to one of Rich's favorite players. Which quarterback is more likely to throw the longest touchdown pass Sunday, Baker Mayfield or Joe Burrow? Chris described Burrow as Rich's adopted son, and Rich didn't argue. He took Burrow. He loved hearing Mayfield say on the show last week that Chris Godwin looks great, but he sees Tampa Bay's receivers as more of a catch-and-run group, while Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins is more likely to be a ball aired out and snatched down.

For the Los Angeles running back question, it was Jeremiyah Love or Omarion Hampton in total yards. Rich went Hampton, noting Daniel Jeremiah came on the show and said Hampton could win the rushing title. The table also pointed out Love is not first on the depth chart, is coming off a preseason ankle sprain, and got 14 carries in the preseason. Rookie running backs, as someone put it, get worked in.

Which quarterback will people say is most back after Sunday, Kyler Murray or Jayden Daniels? Rich called it a great one and picked Murray, who is at home against Green Bay. Daniels, meanwhile, is in Philadelphia. "That is a cauldron."

TJ got a question of his own. What will be the higher number on Sunday Night Football: the times NBC shows the famous Odell Beckham Jr. catch, or combined touchdowns by Malik Nabers and George Pickens? TJ picked the touchdowns, and the debate quickly turned to whether pregame replays count. Rich, who has spent plenty of time on pregame shows, knows there is time to fill. He offered his own over-under. Both numbers combined will be less than the number of times the broadcast shows Jerry Jones.

The last question was aimed at Rich as a Rams season ticket holder. Which Rams star is more likely to be thinking about retirement, Aaron Donald or Matthew Stafford?

"How dare you?" Rich said. He picked Stafford, then called out a suggestion made the night before in the show's guillotine league text chain that Donald might be thinking about staying retired. "That's absurd."

The response from the accused: "New phone, who dis?"