Tom Pelissero on Timelines for an AJ Brown Trade & Aaron Rodgers Decision

Aaron Rodgers will sign in Pittsburgh before AJ Brown trades to New England, in Tom Pelissero's reading. Both are coming. The Steelers' deal is days away. The Eagles' deal needs the calendar to flip.

Pelissero broke down both timelines on the show.

Brown's situation, he said, is entirely about the cap math that resets on June 1.

"It'll be right around, you know, the June 1st date at which the cap consequences changed substantially here," Pelissero said. "I would tell you, as of a couple of days ago when I checked in, doesn't sound like there's been any communication, much less negotiation on AJ Brown since before the draft."

The Patriots, in his reporting, are still the only team that actually made an offer.

"The Patriots had an offer that they made months ago for AJ Brown," Pelissero said. "It didn't make sense for the Eagles to do anything at that point, because they would have been slapped with a $40 million dead cap charge in 2026."

The cleaner trade window now opens. The Eagles' compensation target, in Pelissero's reporting, started with Howie Roseman wanting something close to what Philadelphia paid the Titans for Brown four years ago. The Patriots' first offer was not in that range.

"2027 draft pick, there's a reason those were not really moved in this past draft, Rich, because this is a really good draft," Pelissero said. "But one of the teams, the team that got the highest 2027 pick, just so happened to have been the Eagles, who have additional capital in that draft. That's what they're going to be trying to move AJ Brown for. Is it a one? That's hard to imagine. Is it a two? They could have had a two in this year's draft."

The most likely buyer remains the same.

"It does still sound like the Patriots are the most likely team, if not the only team," Pelissero said. "Howie certainly could open it up and speak to others. If somebody, let's say, has a need arise."

Roseman, he said, is unlikely to take the first offer if it does not move him.

"This is Howie," Pelissero said. "He is going to make every phone call and get the most out of every deal. If he doesn't like what the Patriots' offer is, whether that's today or in three weeks or in August, he could also wait on this thing."

Pelissero's call on the outcome is the move happens, eventually.

"It does seem like we're headed toward resolution in the not-too-distant future," Pelissero said. "And it sounds like that resolution is going to be with AJ Brown putting on a different uniform in 2026."

Rich pivoted to the question of which shows up first. Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, or AJ Brown in New England.

Pelissero went immediately to Rodgers.

"Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh is more likely to show up sooner because, and I've said this, Rich, for months on this show and elsewhere, the target date was never the draft," Pelissero said. "It was not the start of free agency. It was really May 18th for Aaron Rodgers. It was first day of OTAs."

The reasoning is structural to the offseason calendar.

"This portion of the offseason, it's geared toward Will Howard and more recently Drew Allar in terms of the fundamental work that you get in phase one and phase two," Pelissero said. "Phase three is where you have a little bit more of a competitive environment where a lot more of the players are present. That's where ideally, knowing how Mike McCarthy thinks, you'd want your starting quarterback to be there."

The comp Pelissero reached for was the 2007 Packers. Brett Favre at 37. McCarthy in his second year. Time on task.

"He showed up in 2007, not for all the OTAs, but for some of them," Pelissero said. "That was part of a conversation that Mike McCarthy had with Brett Favre about, hey, we need to get everybody together here. It's important. I can't force you. It's voluntary and it remains voluntary, but it would be really good if you came. I think Brett attended like nine out of 12 sessions or something that offseason."

The result of that buy-in was a surprise NFC Championship Game run.

"They made a surprise run to the NFC Championship Game," Pelissero said.

The current Rodgers situation, Pelissero said, has a tell.

"If Aaron Rodgers is not there next week, that would be the first time to me that the dauber would begin to go up on, is Aaron Rodgers potentially not going to show up," Pelissero said. "I still believe that he is. I still believe he's going to sign. There is nothing that I have been told that makes me believe the contract is going to be an issue."

The deal, in his reporting, is straightforward.

"It's going to be a one-year deal," Pelissero said. "It's going to have a two in front of it. I believe it's a pretty straightforward type of thing, because this is not about money for a player who's made close to $400 million in his career."

The patience-meter inside Pittsburgh is starting to register.

"At some point, the patience is going to run out," Pelissero said. "It certainly seems like the patience for Steelers fans, just based on the feedback I get every time I talk about Aaron Rodgers, may already be running out for some people. For Art Rooney, for Mike McCarthy who's trying to get the team ready on the field. That patience may be tested. I don't believe that that has happened yet."

Pelissero confirmed that Rodgers was in town last week but did not visit the facility.

"There was never a meeting or a visit set up, at least from the Steelers end, for him to come in," Pelissero said. "He wasn't in the building. Nobody talked to him."

The remaining question, in his framing, is not contract or conspiracy. It is the player.

"It's about Aaron Rodgers deciding, yes, I 100 percent committed to playing football in 2026, and I'm going to put in the time to make sure that I and everybody around me is ready to roll," Pelissero said.