The Ringer’s Todd McShay’ Advice for Arch Manning: Transfer to Kentucky

Todd McShay isn't giving up on Arch Manning. But if the Manning family decides it's time to leave Texas, The Ringer's draft analyst knows exactly who he'd call first.

"The first call I would make if he was my son is to Will Stein in Kentucky," McShay told Rich.

Rich opened with the question everyone is asking. Why is Manning not in the first-round conversation right now? He ran through the theories: maybe Manning spent high school scoring touchdowns against kids who weren't SEC athletes and is learning the hard way, maybe it's Sark's system or coaching, or maybe he just isn't that great.

McShay started with what isn't the problem. "Physically he is that great," he said. "Big arm, 6'4, 230 plus pounds and mobile." Rich added that the magic has shown up too, pointing to a fourth-quarter, 21-point comeback against Ohio State.

So what's wrong? McShay boiled it down to two possibilities, and said it could be both. If you want to be a jerk about it, he said, carefully choosing a word fit for Disney, you blame Sark: past his prime, needs to give up play-calling, holding Manning back. Or you go the other way and question how Manning isn't processing four years into the system and two years as a starter.

McShay thinks it's a little of both, "but not as drastic as that." The bigger issue, he said, was expectations. "Arch came in with just unreasonable expectations," McShay said. The assumption, maybe even inside the Texas building, was that as the nephew of Peyton and Eli he would understand concepts and be brilliant like his uncles. "But we forget that his grandfather was the mobile, scramble, crazy, make-plays type of guy," McShay said, and that Manning is Cooper's son.

He compared it to a college defensive tackle who simply overpowered guards and then hits the NFL, where technique suddenly matters. Manning, he said, has had to learn where his eyes need to be and how to bring his feet with it. McShay also hears from people around the program that a lot of great work in practice isn't translating on Saturdays.

His comp is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence had similar physical tools at Clemson but played in a simple offense with big receivers who made plays. He went first overall, and five years and three systems later it finally clicked. "Now Trevor Lawrence, you can argue, is one of the best five quarterbacks in the NFL," McShay said. "Just because Arch isn't ready right now doesn't mean he can't get there."

McShay does have a specific issue with the Texas offense. "The play designs are awesome, man," he said, but the play calling is where he has a problem. Against Ole Miss, he saw Texas open with pro-style, three-step drops where Manning delivered with conviction, then drift a couple of series later into orbit sweeps, jet sweeps and bubble screens.

"Playing quarterback is so much about empowerment," McShay told Rich. "I don't see him in control of this offense. He's a joystick at times for Sark's brilliance." He called Sark brilliant at scheming a receiver open on third-and-7, but said the play-call timing has thrown Manning off. He also said Manning owns his part, whether it's confidence or practice habits not carrying into games.

Then Rich asked McShay to channel his inner Gil Brandt, the scout famous for telling prospects exactly where they'd go. What would he counsel Manning to do?

McShay noted he has a good relationship with the family from years at the Manning Passing Academy, though he doubted they'd put much stock in his opinion. His advice: "Go back to school."

He was clear that Manning's talent isn't in question. "If he came out in this year's draft, even if this season just goes kind of up and down the rest of the way, a team's still drafting him in the first round. He's that talented." But a first-round pick almost always starts at some point as a rookie, "and I don't think he's ready yet. And that's okay."

McShay stressed he isn't advising Manning to leave Texas. But if the family decides on a change, his call goes to Kentucky and Will Stein, citing Stein's work with quarterbacks like Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, and Dante Moore's breakout after things didn't work at UCLA.