The Ringer’s Todd McShay Talks Arch Manning & 2027 NFL Draft QB Class w/Rich

The 2027 NFL Draft was supposed to be the mother of all quarterback classes. Rich told Todd McShay it isn't shaping up that way. McShay's first response was to play along. "It's horrible. It's terrible."

Then The Ringer's draft analyst asked for some perspective.

"We've had two quarterbacks drafted in the first round each of the last two years," McShay told Rich. "I'm looking at five guys who potentially could be first-round draft picks." And that's before counting the big names who will probably return to school.

McShay started with the quarterbacks he isn't counting yet. Arch Manning is most likely going back to school, at Texas or elsewhere. LaNorris Sellers has looked like "a dude at the next level" over the last three weeks. Sam Leavitt is starting to heat up in Lane Kiffin's offense. And Austin Simmons, who lost his job to Trinidad Chambliss after an injury and transferred to Missouri, reminds McShay of Michael Penix with the way he throws from the left side. McShay isn't ready to stamp him yet, given his limited college experience.

Every year there's a riser who comes out of nowhere, and McShay said Drew Mestemaker has all the traits. People are throwing out Josh Allen comparisons, which McShay said is "too rich for me." He sees more of a Tyler Shough type, maybe a little north of that, "without all the injuries and the seven, eight-year journey."

Then there's Dante Moore. McShay pushed back on the idea that Moore isn't a first-rounder. "He should have gone to the Jets at number two last year," he said. He acknowledged some limitations, likening him a bit to C.J. Stroud in that he doesn't love to run, and some decisions he can improve on, including a missed sail route and a couple of reads in the Oklahoma State loss. "But he's the best pure passer," McShay said. "When he's healthy, he's the best pure passer in the country and will be in this draft class."

McShay called Darian Mensah "just lights out so far," with a big test coming at Notre Dame without Malachi Toney. He praised CJ Carr's work between the ears before the snap, getting out of bad plays and into good ones, while noting Carr doesn't have the receivers some others do. Chambliss has a big opportunity against Georgia, a defense McShay said has six NFL prospects, and McShay recalled Chambliss snapping Georgia's 75-game streak of winning when leading going into the fourth quarter. Jayden Maiava is playing well at USC, and McShay said some scouts see him in the fringe first-round range.

He also brought up Brendan Sorsby, who can't play this year after what McShay called an offseason "circus" involving gambling and a stint in rehab. McShay said people in Sorsby's camp tell him he's doing well, working out and preparing for the Senior Bowl. "He is an extraordinarily talented young man who may be a day two pick but could be a starter in the NFL in the future."

The disappointment, McShay said, is that everyone hoped Manning would take off, go first overall in Washington, D.C., with Leavitt and a top-five Sellers right behind him. "It hasn't happened that way, but there's still a lot of quarterbacks with a lot of big games coming up to sort this thing out."

Rich ran through the theories on Manning: high school competition that wasn't SEC-caliber, Sark's system and coaching, or simply that he's not that great. McShay rejected the last one immediately. "Physically he is that great," he said. "Big arm, 6'4, 230 plus pounds and mobile." Rich pointed to the fourth-quarter, 21-point comeback against Ohio State as proof the magic is there.

McShay said you can be "a jerk" in either direction, blaming Sark for being past his prime or blaming Manning for not processing four years into the system. He thinks it's a little of both, but not that drastic. The bigger issue was "unreasonable expectations." Everyone assumed Peyton and Eli's nephew would be a conceptual genius like his uncles, McShay said, "but we forget that his grandfather was the mobile, scramble, crazy, make-plays type of guy."

His comp is Trevor Lawrence, who had similar tools at Clemson, played in a simple scheme, went first overall and only started clicking five years and three systems later. "Just because Arch isn't ready right now doesn't mean he can't get there."

McShay's issue with Texas is play-calling, not play design. Against Ole Miss, he saw Manning thrive on early pro-style, three-step drops before the offense drifted into orbit sweeps, jet sweeps and bubble screens. "Playing quarterback is so much about empowerment," he said. "I don't see him in control of this offense. He's a joystick at times for Sark's brilliance." But he added that Manning is responsible for his part too.

Rich asked McShay to channel his inner Gil Brandt and counsel Manning directly. McShay, who has a relationship with the family through the Manning Passing Academy, was clear. "Go back to school."

The talent isn't the question. "If he came out in this year's draft, even if this season just goes kind of up and down the rest of the way, a team's still drafting him in the first round," McShay said. But a first-round pick almost always starts at some point as a rookie, "and I don't think he's ready yet. And that's okay."

McShay insisted he isn't advising Manning to leave Texas. But if the family decides on a change, "the first call I would make if he was my son is to Will Stein in Kentucky." He pointed to Stein's track record with quarterbacks: Bo Nix's growth after Auburn, Dillon Gabriel, and Moore's breakout after things didn't work at UCLA.

Rich raised what he called the fascinating part. Look at the teams near the top of the draft order. The Chargers don't need a quarterback, even with Herbert struggling. The Titans have Cam Ward. The Dolphins might be in the market, and the Eagles have the conversation around Hurts and his contract. The Jets could have three picks in the top 10. The Texans and Commanders aren't looking. A lot of top-10 teams, Rich said, have either found their quarterback or are paying him.

McShay agreed it could be "very wild." If Ward keeps playing the way he did last Sunday, Tennessee is set. "Maybe for once, the supply and demand will match up," McShay said. Instead of teams reaching, maybe one of Mestemaker or Carr goes in the top six, another team trades into the back of the top 10 for the other, and the rest land in the middle of the first round, where McShay thinks they belong.

He also flagged a deep class elsewhere: Jeremiah Smith, Colin Simmons, Dylan Stewart, Charlie Becker, a versatile defender in Chris Cole, an interior defensive lineman at Tennessee he called the most devastating in college football this year, and 11 offensive tackles in his top 58. And he doubted how many quarterbacks will actually come out, since Mestemaker could return to school. Moore, McShay said, is expected to be part of the class according to people around him, and Chambliss has to be. Rich joked about a judge somewhere granting Chambliss another year of eligibility.

Then Rich got to the pick he can't stop thinking about. If the Chargers land a top pick, he said, they should put Jeremiah Smith on the card and not even think about it. Just a wide receiver? "That's the end of it."

McShay was all in. Why dangle the pick so Miami can trade up for a quarterback you're unsure about? "That guy's so special," McShay said. "I'm going to take Jeremiah Smith." He called it "the absolute move" for the Chargers.

Rich went further on Smith's season. "If Jeremiah Smith does not win the Heisman Trophy, they should just smelt it down and make pinballs out of it," he said, adding, "and I'm a Michigan guy saying it." McShay noted that Smith's stat line against USC would be great for any receiver, and for Smith it was pedestrian.

"It's going to be a fascinating draft in DC, brother," Rich said.

"Oh, it is," McShay said. "I can't wait, because there's a lot of good players."