The Athletic’s John Hollinger Don’t Expect Big Surprises in the ‘26 NBA Draft

With the NBA Draft a day away, the expectation from The Athletic's John Hollinger is straightforward: do not expect fireworks at the top.

"In terms of the draft, I think it's going to end up being chalk," Hollinger said.

His board runs clean through the first four picks. He expects Boozer to go to Memphis at number three, Wilson to Chicago at number four, and the only real intrigue near the top is whether the Wizards surprise everyone and take Peterson first instead of Dybantsa. The draft, in Hollinger's words, really begins at five.

That is where it gets interesting. The Clippers hold that pick, and there are a lot of point guards on the board they could turn to. They could also trade it.

"There's a lot of optionality there," Hollinger said. "But one through four, I think we're going to end up pretty chalky."

The bigger question is how much these rookies will matter right away, and the honest answer depends on where they land. Hollinger pointed out that Memphis, Washington, and Chicago are all rebuilding, which makes the top three picks more of a Cooper Flagg situation: a good young player on a team that is not very good.

Utah is the exception. Whether the Jazz end up with Peterson or Dybantsa, Hollinger said they are walking into a situation that might be a playoff team right away.

As for the overall level of talent, Hollinger does not see a generational big at the top, but he sees real quality stacked deep.

"I think there's not a Wemby in this draft, but there are four Harpers at the top," he said, referencing Dylan Harper, who Hollinger noted played a major part in the season and the Finals despite low expectations.

The depth holds up to a point. Hollinger said the draft is loaded with quality going down to about 20, "and then it falls off a cliff because everyone after 20 took the NIL money and went back to school basically."

His one super sleeper is Alan Graves of Santa Clara, a player who put up big numbers outside a power-five league. Graves does not always look the part on tape.

"He's a little bit like kind of heavy footed," Hollinger said, "but he like really skilled and has great hands and stuff."

Hollinger expects Graves to go in the second half of the first round and is curious which kind of team ends up picking him.

He also gave a full-throated endorsement of the NBA splitting the event into two days, round one Tuesday and round two Wednesday. The old format, he said, gave front offices only two minutes between picks while second-round selections were getting traded so fast you could barely track who held them.

"For the emotional health of front office executives, I think that was a great move," Hollinger said. He admitted he does not know how it plays for TV ratings, but as a former front-office voice, he was a big fan.

One more reality check from a man who has lived it: real summer for anyone in the NBA does not start until July 15th, when the plane leaves Las Vegas Summer League. Until then, everyone is drinking from the fire hose.