The Athletic’s Joe Vardon Talks NBA Playoffs, LeBron & More

Two Game 6s on the same night. The Pistons can dodge elimination at home. The Timberwolves can force a Game 7 against San Antonio. The Athletic's Joe Vardon joined Kirk Morrison filling in for Rich and walked through both, with a LeBron James detour at the end.

The Cleveland-Detroit closeout went first. Vardon framed the situation around an East precedent Cleveland just lived through.

"It's been a while since the number one seed has advanced out of the East, certainly to the finals," Vardon said. "Last year the Cavs were in this position and actually lost 4-1. So this is hard."

The Cavs have momentum and home court. Cleveland has won three in a row in the series, hasn't lost at home in the playoffs, and figured out a coverage piece when Duncan Robinson was out for Game 5.

"Allowed them to go to Dennis Jenkins, and he was really good," Vardon said. "He was actually really tough on Donovan for the first four quarters, and the Pistons certainly had a chance to win."

The number Vardon wanted on the table was free throws.

"You look at the free throw discrepancy in the series, it's outrageous in favor of Cleveland," Vardon said. "You can complain about the officiating if you want, but the Cavs are more active with the ball. They're moving it more and they're getting to the rim drawing contact."

His pick is built on the road-team math of closeouts.

"It's hard to declare a road team's going to come into somebody else's building in a closeout series and take game six," Vardon said. "So no surprise if the Cleveland Cavaliers are able to win this game."

Morrison asked Vardon whether a long, drawn-out East series helps or hurts whoever advances against the rested New York Knicks.

The answer was uncharacteristically firm.

"I think it's the other way around," Vardon said.

Vardon laid out the cross-currents. He admitted at the start of the second round he had no feel for any of the four remaining teams. The Knicks then swept Philadelphia after dispatching Atlanta and have been playing what he called lights-out for seven straight games.

"The Knicks have actually been playing lights out for seven consecutive games," Vardon said. "So I do like what they've been up to lately."

But the layoff that gets handed to a team waiting for a Game 7 winner cuts the other way. If Cleveland wins Game 6, the next series opens Saturday at 3:30 at the Garden.

"The Knicks will have been off for, what, a week?" Vardon said. "And the Cavs will have been playing every other day, and they'll be in a rhythm."

His pick is still New York to take the series. But the opener.

"I would not be surprised to see the Cavs take that game," Vardon said.

The Spurs-Timberwolves conversation flipped his tone. He came in expecting to talk about San Antonio. Minnesota has surprised him.

"I've been pleasantly surprised by Minnesota," Vardon said. "You didn't know about Ant. And then the Spurs have been so good all year."

Game 6 is in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves have already won once in this series.

"It's certainly not out of the realm for them to force a game seven," Vardon said.

The Spurs themselves, in his read, have not earned the casual handoff to dynasty status.

"As good as they have been all year, and as well as they are built for the present and the future, there still is some lack of experience there," Vardon said. "And so they are working through that."

The Wembanyama close-up factor is now the entire question.

"I assume that Wemby will keep his cool tonight, and that will help the Spurs," Vardon said.

Morrison wanted to know whether a Spurs-Thunder Western Conference Finals is the start of a new rivalry that defines the league.

Vardon went historical first.

"We haven't had a repeat champion since the '17 Warriors and '18 Warriors," Vardon said. "So we're looking to see if that happens this year with the Thunder. Feels like they're in the best position to maybe do it. All that is to say, it's harder to declare any team the next great sustainable franchise."

He pointed to the regular season as the proof of the rivalry.

"San Antonio pounded OKC during the regular season," Vardon said. "Just beat them up. Assuming we get to a Conference Finals out West with those two teams, that might be a great series."

His read on the future of the Western Conference is built around those two plus two known constants.

"You certainly suspect in the West, you're going to see for a long time, you're going to see the Thunder, you're going to see the Spurs group," Vardon said. "You think that the Timberwolves should be competitive for years to come, and as long as Denver has Jokic, that rounds out the top four there pretty well."

Morrison closed with the LeBron question. The Lakers are out of the playoffs. James is somehow still on the front page.

"If he wants to play, then I think it will be drawn out," Vardon said. "I think that he would want to play, and he would want to return to the Lakers."

The size of the deal is where it gets interesting.

"Unless the Lakers feel like they can get him for, let's say a $15 number, which is I'm not very good at math, but roughly 35 to 37 million less than he's making this year," Vardon said. "If they could lock that in before they go out and really finish whatever they're trying to do in free agency and trades, then okay."

The realistic version, in his framing, is that the Lakers make LeBron wait while they explore the market.

"I would suspect, in the event that LeBron wants to play, he says, okay, I want to come back," Vardon said. "The Lakers say, great, let us go take a look at what we're trying to do elsewhere in free agency and see how much it costs, and then we'll come back to you with your fit, your role, and what we can pay you. And I think the answer will be yes."

The alternative options, he said, do not pencil out. The Bulls have the most cap space but adding a 42-year-old LeBron does not solve the long-term problem. Cleveland could only pay him about six million dollars, less than Sam Merrill.

"You think he's coming here for that?" Vardon said. "I don't."

The closing math, as Vardon put it, is simple.

"If he wants to play, then it would be that he would rather stay with the Lakers," Vardon said. "And it would just be a little bit more of a drawn-out process."