The Ringers’ Howard Beck Previews Giannis’ & LeBron’s Eventful Offseasons

Before letting Howard Beck go, Suzy asked the two questions that will define the NBA summer: what happens with Giannis, and what happens with LeBron.

On Giannis Antetokounmpo, Beck expects movement, and soon. The logic points to getting something done by the draft. He has friends in Milwaukee who, as recently as a month and a half ago, cautioned against assuming anything, insisting it could still somehow end with Giannis staying. Beck is skeptical of that, and so, he said, is most of the league. The open questions are where, for whom, and how the trade even gets built, because in the era of the second apron and convoluted cap rules, it might take three, four, or five teams rather than a clean two-way swap.

Something will happen, Beck believes, possibly within the next month, with the draft as the logical tipping point. He reached for precedent, citing the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett deal the Nets and Celtics made back in 2013, which was agreed to on draft night but could not be formally consummated until July after the moratorium. By that math, we may be four weeks from knowing Giannis's future.

LeBron James is the harder case. From everything he keeps saying publicly, Beck noted, James does not sound like a man hinting at retirement. The Lakers' playoff run without Luka and largely without Austin Reaves actually proved James can still carry a team when he has to, and even at 41, soon to be 42 in December, he could be enormously valuable in a secondary or third-option role.

The complication is the Lakers' bigger picture. This is their first real summer to decide how to build around Luka Dončić. They tinkered last offseason but now have cap room, and part of unlocking that room requires LeBron to be gone. Beck framed it bluntly: with Dončić in his prime, the team cannot afford to wait, and a sustainable rebuild over the next several years might mean concluding it no longer makes sense to keep James on the books at 30, 40, or 50 million dollars. He does not envy Rob Pelinka, Jeanie Buss, Mark Walter, and the rest of the decision-makers, who face a challenging summer they absolutely have to get right.