ESPN’s Brian Windhorst: Don’t Expect Heat to Contend in Year One with Giannis

If you are waiting for the Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat to contend right away, Brian Windhorst has a gentle warning. Pump the brakes on year one.

First, the why behind the destination. Windhorst's read is that Antetokounmpo wanted to go to Boston or Miami. He cannot say for sure, but he suspects Milwaukee looked at the alternatives and made a roster calculation. If the Bucks had traded for Jaylen Brown, Windhorst said, they would have been in the same spot a year later, because the team around him still would not have been enough. Instead of an unhappy Giannis they would have to move, they would have an unhappy Brown they would have to move.

So even though Brown is the better talent, Windhorst believes Milwaukee chose the return that let them rebuild. The Bucks came away with two lottery picks, including a high-upside prospect out of Tennessee, the kind of swing Windhorst compared to drafting Antetokounmpo himself years ago. He would not be surprised if Milwaukee flips some of the other pieces it got for more prospects, trying to build from scratch after going roughly a decade without a high draft pick.

Then the harder question: what is the plan for Miami to build around Giannis now? Windhorst's answer was blunt. It is going to be hard. It is going to take a year. They gave up so much.

He still sees a foundation. The Heat will be formidable, especially defensively, with Bam Adebayo and Antetokounmpo forming a front line nobody wants to deal with. The problem is shooting. Neither of those two is a dynamic shooter, and while Adebayo has improved, Miami needs more shooting and more ball handling around them. Windhorst would watch the Heat more closely in 2027 and 2028 than in the coming season, while making clear he does not want to disrespect a franchise that has repeatedly shown it knows how to build a champion.

The segment also produced a rare moment, with Rich breaking news to the reporter instead of the other way around. Andrew Wiggins had just signed a three-year deal, and Windhorst worked the math live. Wiggins was set to make 30 million dollars this year, Windhorst noted, so a three-year, 64 million dollar agreement averaging about 21.3 million should pull his current number down, likely under 20 million.

That matters for Miami's flexibility. Ten minutes before he saw the news, Windhorst said, the Heat had about 18 million dollars to fill out five roster spots. Reduce Wiggins's salary by roughly 10 million this year, and Miami is suddenly looking at something closer to 28 or 29 million for those spots. More room, even if the contention window still sits a couple of years out.