What’s More Likely: Tom Pelissero Talks 49ers, Rams, Raiders, Falcons & More

What's More Likely turned into a tour of the summer's biggest what-ifs, with Tom Pelissero playing the odds across both leagues.

It opened with Brandon Aiyuk, whose social media has gotten strange, including a video of him alone in an empty white closet throwing cash on the floor. Pelissero hoped it was performance art rather than a warning sign.

"I hope Brandon Aiyuk is just being funny and is not unwell," he said. His read on the standoff was practical: no amount of posting forces a move. Aiyuk has to physically show up to the facility to force the 49ers' hand, because putting him back on the active roster would slam his salary onto the cap. As for where he lands, Pelissero sees only one real suitor. The Commanders have GM Adam Peters, who was in San Francisco when Aiyuk was drafted, and Jayden Daniels, his old Arizona State teammate. The catch is that Aiyuk has not played a game in 20 months, with his health an open question.

On the Rams' 2028 starter, Pelissero leaned toward Ty Simpson over Stafford, not as a knock but as a read on life and timing. Stafford is 40, with a college-sweetheart wife and four young girls, and Pelissero does not picture him playing "until the very last second." Still, he does not see McVay and Les Snead chasing off a quarterback who was the best player in the league a year ago.

The fantasy tight end question pitted Kyle Pitts against Jacksonville's newly paid Brenton Strange, and Pelissero went looking for value. He expects Strange's role to keep growing with Trevor Lawrence under center, while Pitts remains tantalizing but unproven in an Atlanta offense without a settled quarterback. Pitts will get drafted higher, Pelissero figured, so he would happily take Strange a couple of rounds later.

Among veteran quarterbacks in competitions, Cousins, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa, Pelissero picked Kirk Cousins to start the most games. He expects Cousins out of the gate while the Raiders protect rookie Fernando Mendoza, who faces a real adjustment from a shotgun RPO scheme to an under-center, play-action system. Tua sits in a fight with Michael Penix Jr., who is coming off another ACL injury.

The NBA calls leaned on the week's churn. Asked who goes further next postseason, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jaylen Brown, Pelissero took Giannis and the Heat as his East favorites, while noting he likes a Brown-Jokic pairing if Brown lands in Denver. His one worry on Giannis, who is 31 with an injury history, is health.

On the better Western Conference backcourt, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves versus Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, Pelissero called Minnesota the more dynamic duo, pending Ball's health, and noted Edwards is "fired up" to finally have someone who can create for him.

The segment closed on the 30th anniversary of Independence Day. Pelissero admitted he saw it in theaters back when he still went to movies, though he never thought it was great. His pick for a Fourth of July party movie, over Jaws and The Sandlot, was unanimous anyway: Independence Day, 100 percent.