Week 9 is in the books, the single-digit weeks are over, and the trade deadline was a day away when Rich and Chris sat down for Overreaction Monday. Chris brought the takes. Rich ruled on them, and he wasn't always kind.
Chris started with Sunday night: "We crowned the Bears too early." The Bears came out against the Bucs like they'd done it all before, with Ben Johnson's scripted opening drive and a throw over the middle to Luther Burden, who went the rest of the way. At that point, "this thing is toast." But Tampa clawed back. Rich walked through Todd Bowles taking a field goal at the end of the first half instead of going for a touchdown, a choice that looked smart once the Bucs tied it at 24, before the Bears won it with a field goal after a blown coverage on Colston Loveland. The Bucs, Rich said, "played a superb defensive game," getting Caleb Williams to throw four interceptions.
His ruling: not an overreaction. "The Bears can be beaten," Rich said. They looked like the best in the conference coming out of Seattle, but Sunday night showed "there's some holes where you can get Caleb to still be a turnover machine." The first pick was at least understandable on set, a heat check from a quarterback "on the heater of all heaters." The other ones were more like "come on, man."
Next: the NFC champion will come out of the North. Rich called that an overreaction for one big reason. "The 49ers still exist." Chris argued San Francisco's schedule is soft. Rich disagreed and ran through it: the Cowboys, the Vikings in Mexico City, Seattle at home, then the Giants, the Rams, the Chargers, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Arizona. "I think they're going to win 13, 14 games," he said. And with the North teams playing each other, Rich expects them to "beat each other up." He noted a crucial stretch for Minnesota: Buffalo, at Green Bay, then San Francisco in Mexico.
That led to Green Bay's win over Chris's Patriots, and Rich enjoyed this part. "There isn't a throw Jordan Love thinks he can't make right now," he said, though he's concerned about Josh Jacobs' finger injury and the run game. The Patriots, meanwhile, he described as "a turnover-prone quarterback without a running game," with Christian Gonzalez looking like "a shadow of himself." Chris took it fairly well, noting he shut the game off in the third quarter. He did ask why Caleb can throw four picks and be fine while Drake Maye throws four and is "the worst quarterback ever," pointing out that one of them went to the Super Bowl. Rich's retort: the defending AFC champs are "looking completely mediocre right in the middle of the season."
Chris then claimed the Rams are back and Myles Garrett will win Defensive Player of the Year. Garrett had three sacks and a forced fumble, closing out the game, and Chris noted he's on a pace for 27 sacks. Rich called it an overreaction. "Half a season," he said. If Garrett racks up three sacks and a forced fumble every time out, sure, he has a chance. The case for Garrett got a fair hearing: it was his ninth career three-sack game, and nobody has stamped themselves as the clear favorite yet. Jeffery Simmons came up as another name who could be in the mix after transforming Chicago's defense, including running down a receiver 20 yards downfield to stop a touchdown.
"I love that you go with the most positive, sunny Rams take and force me to say this is an overreaction," Rich told Chris. "That's kind of why I did it," Chris replied. The bigger Rams question was "who's catching passes from Stafford." Chris thinks they have to trade for a receiver. Rich isn't so sure. "Knowing them," he said, they could take somebody off another roster and turn him into a 25-to-50 catch receiver the rest of the year. It depends on when they expect Davante Adams back and what Puka Nacua's MRI shows.
On whether Jonathan Taylor won't be the only star traded this week, Rich said that's not an overreaction. His two big questions: are the Raiders ready to move to Fernando Mendoza, and is there "any daylight whatsoever" between Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert? The response on set was that either move would require a massive sea change in thinking. As for Taylor, Rich doesn't understand why the Colts haven't moved him. "The Colts need to burn it down as far as I'm concerned," he said, pointing to a blowout loss to Jacksonville followed by a loss to Dallas.
That led straight to the Chargers. Chris said they should swallow their pride and sell everything, mocking the team's worry about optics: "You're 0 and 8. What do you mean? Those are the optics." Rich disagreed. Khalil Mack, he said, "should be on a different team by middle of the week," but that's different from a fire sale. Herbert was sacked eight times, the hosts' shared alma mater just moved on from its offensive coordinator after the bottom fell out against Michigan State, and now Harbaugh faces questions about his own play caller. Rich's plan: don't sell everything, because "there are still some talented players all over the place." Instead, cherry-pick the veterans the team won't re-sign, cash in picks next April, and "give Justin Herbert a shiny piece in Jeremiah Smith." Overreaction.
Chris's next take landed. Joe Burrow, he argued, is now the MVP frontrunner, and the Bengals are the biggest threat to the Bills in the AFC. "I don't think this is an overreaction at all," Rich said, lamenting that the two teams don't play this year. A first meeting in the playoffs would make up for it. He floated the Bengals as a team that should go for Taylor at running back, and praised Burrow and two "remarkable receivers at the tops of their game." Cincinnati does have trouble stopping the run, which Buffalo could exploit with James Cook, and Bijan had a 100-yard game against them in Spain. But Rich likes the Bengals over the 6-2 Steelers, who visit Cincinnati in Week 10, because "I see a team that can chunk play you to death."
Then the NFC South, which Chris predicted will spur a playoff seeding rule change. Rich had a fix ready. Picture the Bears, he said, as a second-place North team that has swept the South, forced to go on the road for a win-or-go-home game against a 7-10 division winner. "It's absurd," he said.
His rule: "You win your division, you get a home playoff game, unless you are under .500 and the other team that is the fifth seed has a record above .500 with the same number of wins over losses as you do have losses over wins." An 8-9 champion keeps its home game against a 9-8 wild card, but loses it to a 10-7 team. "Put it in front of the membership and rip the knob off," Rich said.
Chris wanted to give C.J. Stroud his flowers after a five-touchdown day, predicting Stroud would become the highest-paid quarterback if he gets Houston to the playoffs. Rich went further. "He's got to be even if he doesn't," he said, because if Houston misses, it won't be because Stroud was bad. Chris admitted he's led the charge of criticism the last two years, "but this year, he's kind of making me and everyone else eat it." Stroud became the fourth player in NFL history with multiple games of 350 passing yards and five touchdown passes at age 25 or younger. The others: Stafford, Mahomes and Marino.
Do the Ravens regret firing John Harbaugh? Rich called it an overreaction. It was probably shocking and tough for Harbaugh to swallow, he said, "and why I say brief, I mean his phone probably rang within minutes." Harbaugh looks great with the Giants. In Baltimore, Rich said, Steve Bisciotti "hired the right guy" in Jesse Minter, and the Ravens are adrift because Lamar Jackson broke his hand, the backup hurt his toe, and they had to call Arizona to get Jacoby Brissett on a plane. "That's not Jesse Minter's fault," Rich said. And did Denver get Derrick Henry? "Derrick Henry's going nowhere, pal."
The tweet of the week predicted that the Chargers-Dolphins game in Week 16 will decide the number one overall pick. Rich didn't think that was an overreaction, walking through Miami's remaining schedule and asking, "Where are the wins?" He noted the Jets lost to Miami at home. The Jets' David Bailey also got a mention as "the biggest threat to Patrick Mahomes's life that we have seen on a football field."
"What a bummer to finish this show that way," came the closing sigh. Chris tried to sneak in one more Patriots point. Rich told him he'd taken care of that already.
Watch the full interview on The Rich Eisen Show, streaming live on Disney+ weekdays Noon-3PM ET.
Adapted from the original segment on The Rich Eisen Show. How we cover the show.