NFL Network’s Kurt Warner Talks Bills, Rams, Dak, Kyler, Mahomes, More w/Rich

Warner Wednesdays are back, and Kurt Warner joined the show from Seattle hours before calling the season opener on national radio, a Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots.

He had gone back and rewatched that Super Bowl, and he thinks the popular memory of it is wrong. Everyone remembers New England getting crushed. Seattle's defense did dominate, but Warner came away impressed by New England's.

"It was 12 to nothing going into the fourth quarter," he said. Seattle scored 17 points in the fourth, but one was a defensive touchdown, and the other 10 came off turnovers inside the 40-yard line. "When you go back and watch it, it was a lot closer game than maybe you would think when you looked at the score." He expects the rematch to be closer than people think too, with the pressure now on Drake Maye and the new weapons, AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs, to find answers for Mike Macdonald's defense.

Rich asked what makes Brown such a good fit for Maye. Warner's answer was about simplicity. "You always want to make the game easier for a young quarterback." New England struggled against man-to-man coverage in the Super Bowl. With Brown, Maye can see man coverage, trust that his receiver wins against anybody, set his feet and throw.

The chess match is how Seattle responds. Last year the Seahawks leaned on what Warner called cover six, a rolled corner with a safety over the top on one side and a quarters look on the other, and it gave Maye problems. If Brown lines up on one side over and over, Warner wants to see whether Seattle simply rolls that coverage his way "and force these other guys to beat us."

He has just as many questions about Seattle's offense under a first-time play caller. Zach Charbonnet is coming off a knee injury, the Seahawks drafted Price in the first round, and Kenneth Walker, who was huge in the Super Bowl, is gone. The identity was running the ball and playing off it, which is where Jaxon Smith-Njigba excelled. Warner expects growing pains. "It's not just going through a play sheet and dialing up this number and that number. It's about the feel of the game."

The conversation turned to Australia, where Matthew Stafford, 38, the same age Warner was in his final season, is about to open against the 49ers. Warner thinks Stafford has to be ecstatic. The offense returns its pieces from an MVP season, and the defense can now take pressure off him. Warner remembered the stretch the year before the MVP when Stafford had several games under 200 yards and the Rams won anyway. "Take that pressure off of Matthew Stafford to me has to have him extremely excited," Warner said.

He also sees the bigger story. After all those years in Detroit without a playoff win and everything people said about Stafford, an MVP followed by a second Super Bowl title at this stage would be "pretty incredible."

With Aaron Donald not making the flight, Rich noted, Jaxson Dart on Monday Night Football in week two may be the first quarterback to look across and see both Donald and Myles Garrett. Did Warner ever face anything like that? He faced Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice, but nothing on this level. "I think they're going to go down as the greatest defensive end we've seen in this era, greatest defensive tackle that we've seen in this era," he said. "I'm going to feel bad for the quarterbacks on the other side."

Rich and Warner made the same Super Bowl LXI pick on the NFL GameDay season preview, Rams over Bills, so Rich asked why Warner likes Buffalo out of the AFC. His answer was the uncertainty everywhere else. Lamar Jackson has a new head coach. Patrick Mahomes is coming back after eight months from a knee injury. Denver will be very good, and Warner thinks the Broncos probably should have represented the AFC last year if Bo Nix had been healthy. Meanwhile Josh Allen has his team in the mix every year. "I don't know if this is a sentimental pick," Warner admitted, but he doesn't see an AFC team with all the pieces together, and he likes Allen's chances as much as ever.

His MVP pick was Joe Burrow. Burrow led the league in passing yards and touchdowns a couple of years ago, and he has all his offensive weapons back. What kept him from the award then, Warner believes, was the team not winning enough. If the defense gives Cincinnati a few more possessions and the wins come, "the numbers will be there."

Rich asked about Kyler Murray in Minnesota, and Warner, who watched a lot of Murray in Arizona, was genuinely uncertain. He has seen incredible glimpses and half a season in the MVP race, but never a player who put it all together seeing the game from the pocket instead of relying on physical gifts. Minnesota's offense has asked its quarterback to play conventionally and get the ball to Justin Jefferson. "Old dogs, new tricks. Can that happen at this stage?" Warner said. "For me, the verdict is still out." He thinks the Vikings should be a playoff team, but it depends on the consistency Murray never showed in Arizona.

Then came rapid fire.

Dart or Tyler Shough for a breakout season? Shough. Warner liked how he played down the stretch and the big-time throws he made. Dart made plays too, but "a lot of it was more the athletic mode as opposed to just playing the position."

Which quarterback takes his team further than it has been: Nix, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud? Warner went with Nix. He thinks the Broncos were the best team in the AFC last year, and Nix keeps getting better and winning big moments. "I believe they've got a chance to go to the Super Bowl this year."

Dak Prescott or Caleb Williams? Dak. Warner already had Dallas in the playoffs, knocking out Carolina, on the condition that the defense makes the big jump people expect. He thinks the Bears take a step back, not because they are worse, but because they won so many late games with heroics. "I just don't know if you can live in that world year after year."

Which injured quarterback looks more like himself, Jayden Daniels or Mahomes? Mahomes, based on the body of work and a return from injury in eight months. "I just can't doubt the guy," Warner said. He isn't sure yet who Daniels is in year three.

Shedeur Sanders or Fernando Mendoza to start more games? Sanders. Warner said Deshaun Watson's "ability or lack of ability to see the field and play the game has been glaring since he's been in Cleveland," and he saw more of it in the preseason. He thinks Cleveland could turn to Sanders fairly early. Mendoza, he expects, will play at some point this year.

And Rich snuck in one more. Who is more likely to start in week three, Michael Penix or Sanders? Warner believes Penix will play more than Tua Tagovailoa and Sanders will play more than Watson, but he picked Sanders for week three. After two road games and a return to Cleveland, "if things don't go well early, I think they could make a change that quickly."

Warner admitted he was just throwing stuff out there without any tape to go on. Rich said that was exactly why he asked, and sent him off to call the opener with Kevin Harlan.