NFL Insider Tom Pelissero on Chances the Cowboys Trade George Pickens

George Pickens just signed his $27 million franchise tag with the Dallas Cowboys. TJ, sitting in the studio in his official capacity as the room's Cowboys fan, wanted to know whether to actually trust it. Tom Pelissero gave him the answer.

The short version is yes. Pickens, in Pelissero's read, plays the season in Dallas.

The longer version starts with what the market actually looked like a year ago. When Pittsburgh traded Pickens to Dallas, the return was a third-round pick. Not a first. Not a first and a second.

"There wasn't like a huge market for him," Pelissero said. "A lot of the stuff that had caused him to go in the second round of the draft in college showed up in Pittsburgh. Teams were aware of it."

The talent has never been the question. Pickens is, by Pelissero's measure, as gifted as any wide receiver in the league. The flags around him are what they have always been. Behavior. Discipline. The first-drive-of-the-Vegas-game suspension that TJ did not need reminded of.

That market context is exactly why a trade right now is unlikely. The Cowboys would listen, Pelissero said. They are not foreclosing the option. But for Dallas to move on, somebody has to offer something significant enough on top of the cap commitment.

"I don't see somebody being willing to give up a first-round pick and more for George Pickens right now," Pelissero said. The exception, he flagged, would be an injury-driven panic move during training camp by a contender. If that happens, the bid changes. Failing that, the Cowboys have no reason to deal.

The longer-term math is what Pelissero used to make the case for Pickens playing it out cleanly. Jerry Jones has already said publicly the Cowboys will not negotiate a long-term contract with Pickens during the season. So Pickens is playing this year on the tag. The 2027 tag, if Dallas tags him again, is 120% of this year's number, which Pelissero calculated at roughly $33 million.

"Now your options are you pay 33 next year, which is 60 million over two, or you get to hit free agency next year," Pelissero said. "Well, the only way you're going to have that type of value next year is you play really well again."

The path Pelissero is sketching has Pickens making more money by behaving normally than by causing problems. The agent at Athletes First, Mook Williams, is not the type to advise players to miss paychecks. Pickens is on the books, signed up for the tag, and will show up for mandatory mini camp.

There may be limited reps. There may be a "my arm" or "my back" day or two. There will not be a hold-in.

The full guarantee Pelissero would not give. Injuries happen. Things change. But sitting here today, his read is unambiguous.

"George Pickens is on the Cowboys in 2026," Pelissero said.

TJ exhaled.