Matthew Berry on How Soon Is Too Soon to Draft a Fantasy Football Defense

O'Shea Jackson Jr. does not draft a defense to win a fantasy football game. He drafts one to make the rest of the room panic.

"We know it's a mental game," Jackson said on the show, describing a 16-man league full of friends he has had for the better part of two decades. His tactic is to take a quarterback a little early, or a defense a little early, purely to spook the room. "Just to kind of shake things up a little bit."

So he asked Matthew Berry the practical version of the question. What is too early for a defense?

Berry's first answer was a confession. "Generally speaking, in leagues that play defenses, and I try not to play in leagues that have defenses," he said, before admitting he prefers superflex and guillotine formats. In a normal league, his rule is simple. Wait until the last round.

Then he carved out the exact exception Jackson lives in.

"In a 16-team league, which I play in like three or four different ones, defenses are one of your starters and they make a difference," Berry said. That changes the calculus, and not only because of the lineup requirement. The waiver wire in a 16-team league is barren, and you come out of the draft with a thin roster and a thinner bench. Streaming a defense during bye weeks means burning waiver claims and bench spots you cannot spare.

Which is why Berry has gone considerably earlier than his own rule suggests. "I have drafted a defense as early as probably the 12th or 14th round in a 16-team league," he said. "So I think the earliest I've ever done is probably a 12th round in a 16-teamer."

Jackson's response was to raise him six rounds. "I've definitely hit a defense in the sixth round."

That is not a projection error. That is the whole strategy. In a 16-person snake draft, the wait between picks is punishing, and Jackson is trying to trigger a chain reaction. "If I can get you to reach a little bit earlier than what you want to, which causes this guy to do it, and that domino effect happens, I've won my mental warfare and I got my number one defense."

Berry, sensing a kindred spirit, offered an escalation.

"I'm a big believer in you use every weapon you got," he said. Knowing Jackson lives in Los Angeles and counts a lot of pro athletes among his friends, Berry's suggestion was to weaponize the friendship. Get a photo with a pro athlete, whether you already have one or you go take it. Post it on Instagram the night before the draft. Then reach for that player.

The intended effect is chaos. "He'd be like, wait, what does O'Shea know? Oh, wait, I just saw a picture of him with whatever, Josh Allen. And wait, he just reached for DJ Moore. What does he know?"

Jackson loved it, then immediately supplied the counterexample that keeps him honest. He once used inside information on a family member and it did not work out.

"One year I picked my cousin, Michael Thomas, and I have not seen him put his pads on since," Jackson said. "That's been driving me crazy. Shout out to Mikey. I love you."