Is 12-5 a Reasonable Expectation for the Houston Texans This Season

Kyle in Atlanta walked the Houston Texans schedule game by game and came out the other side at 12-5. The show's verdict was that he was not crazy. The show's follow-up question was considerably more expensive.

The walk started with confidence. Kyle took the Bills at home to open, on the grounds that Houston has Josh Allen's number, which prompted Rich to relitigate a certain holding penalty in a certain playoff game on behalf of a certain Bills fan in the building.

From there it rolled. Bengals at home. At the Colts. The Cowboys coming to town. At the Titans. Five and oh before Houston even leaves the country.

The first loss came at the Jaguars' de facto London home at Wembley, where Kyle predicted a season split with Jacksonville. Then a win over the Giants, a loss at the Chargers, and a win at the Browns.

He had Houston sweeping the Colts with a Thursday night win at home, losing to the Ravens because the Ravens always seem to get them, beating the Steelers on the road in a playoff rematch, and winning at the Commanders. The Christmas Eve trip to Philadelphia went in the loss column. The Monday nighter at Green Bay went in the win column.

Then the honest finish. Kyle had Houston resting starters in the finale against the Titans and taking the loss.

Twelve and five.

"A little more reasonable than 13," someone noted, which is faint praise but still praise.

Rich then flagged something about the schedule itself that should worry anyone who enjoys watching this team. Houston's first nationally televised game is week six, Sunday morning in London. The next is the Thursday nighter against the Colts. NBC holds a flexible game in week 13 when they visit the Steelers. There is Christmas Eve, and they close on Monday Night Football at the Packers.

Everything else is noon central. There is exactly one late-window game on the entire schedule, at the Chargers.

Which brings up the part nobody in the room could resolve. Is C.J. Stroud winning all those games?

"Stroud is such a conundrum," Rich said, and then laid out why. The rookie season was electric. The seasons since have not been. And yet the pattern holds anyway. He makes the playoffs. He wins a playoff game every year. He gets to the divisional round and fizzles.

The defense is not the problem. As Rich put it, the Texans defense isn't going anywhere.

"If this kid can play like he did in his first year, Texans can make the Super Bowl," Rich said. "There's just no other way to put it."

Stroud is also in line for a contract extension, which is where the conversation got genuinely contentious. Do you give him something starting with a five?

Chris would rather he play it out this year. Rich thinks that answer has consequences the room was not fully pricing in.

"Do you know what that signals to him and the rest of the locker room?" Rich said. You are the quarterback. You are the leader of this team. We are not signing you long term, and we just gave Will Anderson a number that starts with a five.

Chris's counter is that Will Anderson is a top three defender in the league and that the snub should be motivation. Rich did not disagree that it should be. He just does not think that is how it lands.

He also punctured the alternative. If you do not sign him, you find someone else and start from scratch, and Stroud has a 28-18 record and playoff wins that almost nobody else in his contract class can claim.

"CJ Stroud's at the top of the does-he-get-one list," Rich said. "Because anybody else who's in line for a contract hasn't won playoff games like he has. It's that simple."

The franchise tag route got floated, one year at a time, until he winds up getting paid like a Major League Baseball ace, somewhere in the neighborhood of a Gerrit Cole or a Tarik Skubal. Rich's read is that Houston eventually puts a real four-year offer in front of him with a number that is not going to reach the 200-plus tier.

Whether the answer comes before week one is a separate question entirely.