ESPN’s Mina Kimes on the 2-5 Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances

Halfway through the season, the AFC playoff field might already be set. Mina Kimes thinks that is probably right, with one team on the outside she is still watching: the 2-5 Houston Texans.

Rich brought her a theory from the show's Overreaction Monday pod. Chris Brockman had put up the AFC playoff picture through eight weeks and floated the idea that the seven teams in playoff position now will be the seven that make it. The seeding may change, but the field would be the Bills, Broncos, Steelers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals and Patriots, with the Browns, Raiders and Ravens out of it. Rich didn't think it was an overreaction. Did Kimes?

"I think it's right," she said. "I think the Bengals and the Steelers might swap places." But it's hard to feel good about the teams on the outside right now. The Ravens are dealing with the Lamar situation, and "the Browns don't really believe in that offense. So, I think it's accurate."

So Rich asked about the Texans making a run from 2-5. "You say like no way and then you look at the schedule and you're like, it's still probably a possibility," Kimes said.

What's holding her back is the defense. She was "so let down" by its performance against the Giants. Even with the Eagles' defense drawing criticism as a disappointment, Kimes asked, "Is there any unit in the NFL outside of like everything happening in the Chargers that is more disappointing right now than the Texans defense? They were supposed to be the best defense in football."

It wasn't just the passes Houston allowed to New York, she said, but also the explosive runs late. "It was just awful."

Still, she isn't writing them off. "I still think they're in it. I still think CJ Stroud is playing really good ball," Kimes said. "So, they would be the one that I'd keep an eye on." But she stuck with her answer on the field: "I think that seven might be it, which is kind of crazy at this point in the season to say."

Rich ran through what's next for Houston: the Chargers, a trip to Cleveland, then Indianapolis and Baltimore at home. It's possible, he said, that the Texans go on a run and are above .500 heading into a Sunday night game the week after Thanksgiving at Pittsburgh. "It's feasible, really is," Rich said, "but we're just assuming a lot based on previous, even 2025, previous results, right?"

Kimes agreed, and said the halfway point is a good "emotional check-in time." She admitted she kept going into games thinking, "Well, J.J. McCarthy against the Texans defense, really?" and then catching herself. "We got to stop doing that. This isn't the Texans defense of last year," she said. Some years, you have to stop assuming a matchup is difficult based on prior seasons.

Her assessment of the current unit was blunt. "Right now, that defense is not even average. It's crazy how much they've declined."

That said, she isn't counting Houston out. Kimes said she will probably pick the Texans in most of the upcoming games Rich listed, "and they will be relevant."