ESPN’s Marcus Spears Talks Cowboys, AFC West, Lamar & Caleb Williams w/ Rich

Marcus Spears showed up from Seattle in his usual Monday spot with a declaration and a prediction. The declaration: the Cowboys are done. The prediction: Caleb Williams is about to have the kind of night that changes how everyone talks about him.

The Monday Night Countdown analyst covered the Cowboys, the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, the AFC North and AFC West races, and the Bears' Week 8 trip to Seattle in a wide-ranging conversation with Rich.

Rich opened by asking if Spears was officially out on Dallas at 3-5. "Yeah, it's a wrap. It's a wrap," Spears said. "Same issues every week."

By Week 8, Spears said, a team should have a flow and rhythm. Dallas' rhythm, as he described it, is leaving people wide open, failing to stop the run and failing to handle pressure when teams blitz. If CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens aren't going over 100 yards, the offense stalls. Even after a phenomenal run game in Philadelphia the week before, Spears said nothing about the team is consistent. "I would be hard-pressed, as much football as I watch and film I break down, to tell you what the Cowboys consistently are good at." His best guess? Aubrey, "the kicker. That's probably it."

"That's never a good sign," Rich said.

The conversation turned to Baltimore at 4-4. Rich asked what's going through the minds of players like Derrick Henry and Kyle Hamilton. "It's a lot of angst, a lot of probably feeling like we don't have a shot," Spears said. The elephant in the room is Lamar Jackson's availability. Jackson broke his thumb fresh off a high ankle sprain, and Spears stressed that neither injury came from Jackson being reckless. "Those are two plays, routine plays that those things either happen or they don't."

Spears also weighed in on the bigger conversation about Jackson's future in Baltimore. "I think you have to be insane to let Lamar Jackson walk," he said. He compared the loss to Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow going down. Baltimore was one of the teams that "legitimately had a guy good enough to overcome some of those things and hide some of those problems, and that no longer exists." With a new head coach, the positivity of the preseason and Snoop Huntley also going down, Spears said "on the outside looking in, it feels like all is lost," even if the Ravens aren't mathematically out of anything.

So does the AFC North run through the Steelers' Week 10 trip to Cincinnati, with Pittsburgh having already beaten the Bengals in Week 3? "I believe so," Spears said. "And kudos to Pittsburgh for that being the case."

He sees in Pittsburgh exactly what he can't find in Dallas. The Steelers are pressuring quarterbacks at a high level, and a defense that gave up a ton last year seems to be fixing things. He praised the veterans making plays and the team's maturation into a veteran-led group, while Aaron "on the other side is playing phenomenal even without a super explosive passing game." Spears also praised Jaylen Warren, Darnell Washington and an offensive line that "doesn't get enough credit."

His one question is whether the offense can sustain it without explosive plays. He has been asking for weeks what happened to DK Metcalf. "I have no clue how he could fade this much." Still, his verdict was clear. "Pittsburgh right now, coming off the last couple weeks, is the best team. Cincinnati is the most explosive offense, and we know why."

Then came sports talk radio questions. Rich asked Spears to put his marker down on the AFC West, a day after Denver beat Kansas City. Spears is still taking the Chiefs. "Because I think Patrick Mahomes is going to make the difference."

He acknowledged the Chiefs' flaws. Kenneth Walker hasn't had two good weeks in the run game, though Kansas City got explosive plays from its backup running back, and Rashee Rice showed up at times. But Spears said the Chiefs lost that game to self-inflicted wounds. "That game was very winnable by them." He gave a shoutout to Bo Nix and the Broncos for making plays down the stretch, but said that ultimately he would not put more faith in Nix than in Mahomes.

Rich pointed out that Kansas City's remaining schedule is tougher than Denver's, including a five-game stretch that starts with a Thanksgiving night visit to Buffalo. Spears pushed back gently. "Bro, you've done this at such a high level for a long time," he said, before making his point: every one of those opponents is also saying "damn, we got to play Kansas City, too." He believes all of those games are winnable for the Chiefs. "It's just about consistency and putting it together."

He also reminded everyone how little anyone knows. The Commanders beat the Seahawks earlier this year with a backup quarterback. "Most of the time we have to get comfortable with not knowing certain things," Spears said. But when it comes down to the nitty-gritty, "I'm not going to take Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes."

Finally, Rich turned to Monday night. With the Lions coming off home wins over Green Bay and Minnesota and the Packers beating Carolina, did Spears expect to see the eventual NFC North champ on ESPN and ABC that night? Yes. "I would bet on Chicago, as hard and difficult as that is to say based on what Detroit just did against Minnesota."

A big reason is Jeffery Simmons. "Three technique defensive tackles change football teams. They do," Spears said. He considers Simmons a top-five player at the position, a "force multiplier," as Mike Tannenbaum likes to say. "I think he changes everything about what the potential of this team could be." In Tennessee, Spears said, Simmons kept a team in games it probably shouldn't have been in. With the Bears, he should see more pass rush situations.

Spears also gave credit to his "LSU brethren" Kelvin Sheppard for getting his defense to improve, and paused to send his thoughts to Jack Campbell. "Just in life, just health in life," he said.

Then he made his biggest claim. "If Caleb Williams tonight performs like we think he has the potential to do consistently over time, he's going to be in the top five quarterback conversation in the NFL." He compared the opportunity to the games when Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each took that step, "lines of demarcation."

The degree of difficulty is the point. Spears said there will be no excuses, because Seattle has "one of the best defensive minds calling that defense" in Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks just gave up three points to Kansas City and "took Kenneth Walker off the map." Spears likes Williams' odds, in part because of play caller Ben Johnson, and he took a shot at a familiar coaching cliché. "That's why I hate when coaches say, 'Well, it's just another week.' That's a damn lie. Every game ain't the same."

Rich agreed he wasn't overstating it. After Williams' second training camp, his first with Johnson, came the reports of him drinking out of a fire hose. Monday night, they agreed, was the biggest test of his career. Pass it with flying colors, and Williams enrolls in elite quarterback status.

What would passing look like? Spears said he isn't talking about 175 yards and two touchdowns, or even necessarily 300. He wants "consistency from the pocket, you making critical third down conversions, you being able to use your legs," with command "in probably the most hostile environment in the National Football League." Do that, and "we have to change the conversation."

The Bears traded for Simmons, Spears said, because they think their quarterback and their team are on that tier. He still sees the 49ers as the best team in the NFC, "but I don't think Chicago is far behind now." And Spears reminded Rich he called this. "Remember I said Caleb Williams is going to be a superstar. He's going to usher himself into superstardom. He's shown us a little bit of that this year. Tonight the night though."