ESPN’s Marcus Spears Breaks Down His Top AFC Super Bowl Contenders

Marcus Spears joined Rich from the Bay Area ahead of Monday Night Countdown, and before taking out his earbuds he summed up the state of the NFL in one line. "Football is catastrophic, but it's so fun."

Over the next stretch of the conversation, Spears picked a side in Chiefs versus Bills, declared the Cowboys irrelevant, explained what worries him about the Rams, made his case for the Texans, and called his shot on which 1-2 team could follow last year's Patriots to the Super Bowl.

**Chiefs or Bills? Spears picks Kansas City**

Rich put Spears on the spot right away: put your marker on the Bills or the Chiefs. Spears didn't hesitate. "Chiefs."

His reasoning started on defense. He's still a little concerned about what Buffalo gives up on the back end. And while Josh Allen is playing at a level few can reach, Spears thinks Patrick Mahomes can get there when needed. Then there's what Kenneth Walker is doing in Kansas City. Spears expects there will be games when the Chiefs can't ride the run game this successfully, "but until that game happens, keep riding it all the way on to the sunset."

He also believes Mahomes is waiting for the moment to remind everyone he's still that guy at the most important position in football. And as good as Allen has been the past couple of weeks, Spears said, "we saw some of that sporadic, rears its ugly head behavior." He doesn't think it'll be consistent the rest of the year, "but we know that that's still in there somewhere."

**A soft lean in the AFC North**

The Browns lead the division at 4-2 after home wins over the Ravens and Steelers, and the Bengals are coming off a bye. Spears is still holding out hope for Baltimore. Derrick Henry's fumble concerned him, given the critical fumbles from last year, but Lamar Jackson didn't play, which Spears sees as the biggest sign of how much room the Ravens have to climb.

He sees Cincinnati, with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, as part of the conversation, though the defense has tapered off. And he called Aaron Rodgers "sneaky good right now," behind a physical Pittsburgh line that runs the ball well. Still, his pick was Baltimore. "And that's a soft lean, Rich. Real soft."

Spears remains high on the Bengals and thinks they have an offensive ceiling no one in the division can reach. What breaks his brain is whether Zac Taylor will run the ball when it's needed instead of having Joe Burrow drop back 50 times. He isn't asking them to abandon their identity. Balance protects Burrow over the season, takes stress off the offensive line, and keeps the defense off the field. "If they find some semblance of a balance when need be, I think this team is the most dangerous when it comes to offense," he said.

**Have the Texans turned the corner?**

Rich noted how many teams are sitting at 2-4: the Texans, Colts, Cowboys, Rams and Eagles. Have the Texans turned it around?

"I think they're getting there," Spears said. His confidence comes from how they've lost. Houston has been in every game, sometimes without Nico Collins and Marvin Harrison Jr. healthy. He still believes the defense is going to turn a corner and become very high level, and Sunday's win over a Jacksonville team that had been rolling could be "that line of demarcation."

The biggest argument for Houston, he said, is that its quarterback is playing better than any of the other 2-4 teams'. Rich agreed that C.J. Stroud looks like his rookie self again. "He looks phenomenal," Spears said. And to everyone who raised an eyebrow at the Texans acquiring Harrison? The quarterback was already playing at a high level, so they added another weapon. Until the defense turns around, they have to keep putting points on the board, "and they've been doing it in droves."

**The Cowboys are irrelevant. The Rams have problems.**

Spears didn't soften his Dallas take. "Dallas is going to be irrelevant this year when it comes to winning," he said. When Rich asked if he was serious, given how wide open the division is, Spears said that "speaks to more how bad they are."

His preseason concern on the show was the secondary, and it has played out. "They can't cover anybody," he said. "That is free access back there." Green Bay could have scored 40, he argued, if Matthew Golden had caught two more passes.

The most disgusting part, in Spears' words, is that the offense looks bad too. Prescott has been under pressure two weeks running. He vented last week about Dallas not anticipating Todd Bowles sending the kitchen sink, and this week the Cowboys had no answers to the pressure again. Beyond CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Spears asked, who scares you? He's long wanted KaVontae Turpin, who is banged up, more involved. Jake Ferguson hasn't been what he needs to be, and Javonte Williams is fine but not a game-wrecker.

The Rams worry him differently. "The Rams get ran on," Spears said. Aaron Donald has made some plays, but Arizona ran the ball successfully. On offense, he thinks the Rams want to force 350-yard passing games. He criticized Sean McVay for handing a fourth-and-one to the fullback instead of putting the ball in Kyren Williams' hands. "I don't think McVay is coaching at the level in which we've grown accustomed to," he said.

His larger point was philosophical. The Rams don't want to acknowledge they can't just line up Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee and wreck games right now. "The reality is Matthew Stafford under duress is a bad quarterback," Spears said, and the way to keep him out of duress is to run the ball and let his rhythm and timing return. Still, he isn't throwing the Rams on the scrap heap. He's seen moments of brilliance, and Myles Garrett will help. Players make a difference, he said, pointing to Micah Parsons-less Green Bay playing good defense anyway.

**Who wins the NFC North?**

With Josh Jacobs set to return in Green Bay, the Lions coming off a good week in Arizona before the bye, Caleb Williams back in Chicago and the Vikings 5-0 off a bye, Rich asked Spears to put a marker on the division.

Spears respects what Brian Flores is doing with the Minnesota defense, which beat Chicago 9-6 earlier this season. Flores, he said, is dictating entire games and making quarterbacks like Williams look like "they don't know what the hell they seeing." But Spears couldn't dismiss the Bears with Williams at quarterback. He said before the season Williams would ascend to superstardom, "and I think it's happening right in front of our eyes." Coming back against an Atlanta team that had been playing at a high level and being that efficient reminded him how important the position is. He's giving the edge to the best quarterback in the division.

Rich brought up Chris Brockman's Overreaction Monday take that Jordan Love belongs in the MVP conversation, and his own condition that Jared Goff comes with him. Spears agreed both belong. Love should have thrown for almost 400 if not for drops, and with Jacobs back, Spears expects him to keep playing at a very high level. Goff, he said, has had to carry a defense, a point that got his LSU brethren mad at him on behalf of his friend, Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. The worry with Goff is the familiar tail-off in critical games. "But right now, those two should be in the conversation."

**49ers over Commanders on Monday night**

Spears expected San Francisco to dominate. "This is not a get-right game from what you did last week. This is the best team in the NFL at home," he said. Mike Evans was questionable for Washington, and Spears thinks the 49ers' defense under Raheem Morris isn't getting enough credit, noting how it put Seattle's lights out with takeaways. Add Brock Purdy's MVP-level play, and Washington, traveling across the country, was running into a buzzsaw.

He loves one intangible in San Francisco, a staple under Kyle Shanahan: they always seem ready to play. That should be simple, he said, but it isn't always the case. Maybe Jayden Daniels brings some magic, "but I just don't see the Commanders being able to deal with what San Francisco has been putting on tape the last few weeks."

**Which 1-2 team could make the Patriots' run?**

Rich closed with a question he admitted he'd just come up with. Eleven teams started 1-2, like the Patriots did last year on their way to the Super Bowl: the Rams, Saints, Cowboys, Cardinals, Patriots, Commanders, Falcons, Packers, Jets, Colts and Panthers. Which one makes a similar run?

"Patriots," Spears said. Again. He knows there's concern about how A.J. Brown looked, but said Brown won't look like that the rest of the way. Drake Maye is back, and Spears called New England's defense one of the most unsung units in the league for how it gets after quarterbacks and takes the ball away. They've already beaten Buffalo in the division.

Pressed for an NFC pick, Spears went with the Packers. They're still waiting on Parsons, just getting Jacobs back, and Love is playing at a high level. If the receivers catch the ball, that offense paired with this defense is dangerous.

Rich, staying on brand, pushed back for the Rams: they're getting Garrett back, and if you want consistent receivers, there's Adams and Nacua. Was Spears showing recency bias?

"Rich," Spears said. "They have not looked good." He has confidence in McVay and Stafford based on their track record, but the Rams' division is the problem. "This is how me and you go to court," he said. Even with Garrett back, Spears doesn't think the Rams are the best team in the NFC West. That belongs to the 49ers.

Rich did the math: if San Francisco won Monday night, the 49ers would be four and a half games ahead of the Rams, and the Packers already sit two in front of them. "So, I hear what you're saying," Rich said.