Bucs Insider Rick Stroud on the Risk/Reward of Tampa Extending Baker Mayfield

Rick Stroud figured he would ease into the new season. Instead he got a trade demand on Monday and a quarterback shutting down negotiations on Tuesday.

"Never a dull moment down here in Tampa, man," the Tampa Bay Times beat writer told Rich.

Start with Baker Mayfield, who cut off contract talks and announced he will bet on himself again and play out his current deal. Stroud does not know the exact number that broke it, but he has a guess about the first digit.

"I would think that it starts with a five," he said.

By Stroud's understanding, Mayfield's side made concessions on the length of the deal. What did not move was the valuation, and Stroud thinks the explanation may be simpler and stranger than a philosophical disagreement.

"There might be a little sticker shock for the Glazers at the quarterback position," he said. "They've never really paid one of these guys."

The history backs him up. Mayfield will make $40 million this year. Tom Brady, famously, took the discount and played for $25 million. This franchise has never written a market rate quarterback check, and the market has moved without them. Trevor Lawrence, as Stroud pointed out, is making over 50 million just down the street.

Stroud's own read is that Mayfield belongs in that neighborhood. Top 12 at worst, probably top 10.

There is one legitimate reservation, and it is not about talent. Mayfield is 31, one of three quarterbacks to start 51 games over the last three years alongside Josh Allen and Jared Goff, and he plays like a man with no regard for the actuarial tables.

"Baker does wear down," Stroud said. "He puts himself out there almost to a fault at times."

Last season he appeared on the injury report with eight different injuries, and Stroud believes it showed down the stretch. Tampa started 5-1, then 6-2, then lost seven of nine while Mayfield threw fourth quarter interceptions and watched his touchdown to interception split invert.

Stroud is careful about where the blame lands. The offensive line was obliterated inside at guard, the run game never got going, Bucky Irving was hurt, and there is a new offensive coordinator now. "It wasn't all on Baker."

What Stroud cannot square is the standoff itself. "Usually when you have two sides that want the same thing, you can work it out," he said. "You either got a guy or you don't. And you can win a Super Bowl with Baker Mayfield. I believe that."

He also thinks the posture suits Mayfield fine. This is a walk-on at Texas Tech and a walk-on at Oklahoma who won a Heisman, who arrived in Tampa on a one year, $4 million prove-it contract and turned it into a three year, $100 million deal.

"This is where Baker lives," Stroud said.

Then there is Vita Vea, who did not ask for a raise. He asked out.

Vea is 31 with one year left at 17 million, a deal signed four years ago that no longer places him in the top 10 at his position. Stroud thinks he should be there, and cannot understand why cooler heads have not simply bumped him for this season and let him hit free agency after.

The football argument is not close. Stroud says Todd Bowles told him last preseason that there is exactly one player on that defense he cannot plug a replacement in for, and it is Vea. Tampa brought in new linebackers and drafted Jeremiah Trotter, but Stroud's point stands. "Without Vita Vea, it's a different defense, man."

He also does not believe it ends in a trade. Vea is still out there in number 50, holding the blocking sled with a bad back. "It doesn't feel like he's going anywhere to me."

The third piece already happened. Mike Evans took less money to sign with the 49ers, and Rich asked the blunt version of why.

Stroud thinks Evans looked at a receiver room that already includes Chris Godwin in his 10th year, Emeka Egbuka from last year's draft, a returning Jalen McMillan and Tez Johnson, and did the math on his own targets. He has had five coordinators in five years. The streak is over.

"I think he had this if not now, when moment," Stroud said. A storied franchise, continuity on the staff, and a real shot at walking off with a ring.

Put the three together and you get a locker room doing arithmetic it should not have to do. This is a team that has paid Antoine Winfield Jr., Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, so the pattern is not stinginess. It is the timing.

"This is not the vibe you want in that locker room," Stroud said. "I don't know how I'd put a good spin on this."

Lavonte David retired. Evans is gone. Vea wants out. Mayfield is done talking. The front office, Stroud noted, is laying low.

They also open at Cincinnati, and Rich pointed out that Mayfield has a history of enjoying himself in that state.